Coffee Before the Chaos
The dogs are hunting squirrels. Traders are preparing for the oil open. By tonight, we’ll know which hunt mattered more.
It’s 7:30 AM on Sunday here in Trinidad. I’m sitting out in the courtyard with coffee number two, listening to the planes climbing out of Piarco while the dogs conduct their daily search for the squirrel they’ve convinced themselves lives somewhere in the garden. Every morning starts the same way. The squirrel still hasn’t surrendered.
Looking across the weekend news, the tone is clearly risk-sensitive. Energy markets are the focal point, with crude expected to react when trading opens tonight as headlines around the Strait of Hormuz drive concerns about potential supply disruptions. Brent and WTI will be closely watched at the open as traders assess whether the situation is escalating or likely to remain contained.
The weekend news flow is driving expectations. Iran and the United States appear to be moving further up the escalation ladder following reported strikes in and around the Strait of Hormuz. Bahrain activated air raid sirens overnight amid reports of incoming attacks, while Iran’s foreign minister warned that any challenge to Tehran’s control over the Strait would only increase tensions and delay its reopening. Meanwhile, Ukraine continued its campaign against Russian military and energy infrastructure, with reports of additional strikes on aircraft and another oil installation.
With so much unfolding over the weekend, tonight’s market open will be the first real test of investor sentiment, with uncertainty remaining high until trading resumes and participants can react to the latest developments.